Mozambique government forecasts 4.7% growth in 2019

Mozambique government forecasts 4.7% growth in 2019

The Mozambican government expects the economy to 4.7% in 2019 in relation to this year, according to the proposed Economic and Social Plan (PES) approved by the Council of Ministers yesterday.

“PES 2019 is based on the following macroeconomic assumptions: economic growth of 4.7%, annual average inflation rate of about 6.5%” and “reaching US$ 5.16 billion in exports of goods”, the Deputy Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy said.

According to Cabinet spokesman Sousa Fernando, it is also expected that Mozambique will maintain Net International Reserves (RIL) sufficient to cover six months of imports of non-factor goods.

At the same meeting, the 2019 state budget draft amounting to 324 billion meticais (EUR 4.64 billion) was approved, and will be discussed in parliament by the end of the year. The State Budget approved for 2018 amounted to 302.9 billion meticais (EUR 4,3 billion).

“In the 2019 State Budget, the allocation of public resources will continue to be directed towards consolidating the democratic process and complying with strategic and priority actions defined in the Government’s 2015-2019 Five-Year Plan for the economic and social sectors that provide basic services to the population,” the document reads.

Although approved by the Council of Ministers, the draft 2019 Economic and Social Plan and State Budget have not yet been disclosed by the government.

Mozambique on Track to Become a World Leading Gas Supplier – One Project at a Time.

Mozambique are looking to establish the country as a world leader within the LNG sector through heavy investment in multi-scale projects. Foreign energy giants such as ExxonMobil and Eni are investing heavily on billion-dollar projects such as the Rovuma LNG Export project, the Mozambique LNG project and the Coral Sul project.

Rovuma LNG Export project:

US-energy giant ExxonMobil has in partnership with Eni and CNPC submitted development plans to the Mozambican government for the first phase of the Rovuma LNG export project.

ExxonMobil intend to design and build two liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains which will each produce 7.6 million tons of LNG per year.

The Rovuma project’s gas field is located in the Mamba field in block four offshore Mozambique and production is expected to commence in 2024.

The joint venture is also backed by its partners Galp, Kogas and Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos, each of which hold 10 percent interest in the project. A final investment decision (FID) is expected in 2019.

Mozambique LNG project:

Another major player for the development of LNG in Mozambique is Anadarko Petroleum. Anadarko is leading a consortium consisting of Japan’s Mitsui and India’s ONGC and the national oil company of Mozambique, ENH, as well as Bharat PetroResources, PTTEP and Oil India Limited for the Mozambique LNG project.

Mozambique LNG is located offshore Mozambique in Area one and is estimated to have reserves at about 75 cubic feet with an initial production rate of 12.88 million tonnes of LNG per year when completed in 3023/24. However, the consortium is planning on expanding the plant every five years to add more capacity.

EDF of France has recently signed a 15-year contract to buy LNG from the Mozambique LNG plant, whilst Tokyo Gas of Japan and UK based Centrica early in June 2018 signed a 20-year purchase agreement.

A final investment decision for the Mozambique LNG project is scheduled for the first half of 2019.

Coral Sul Project:

A third large investment for the country is a consortium led by Eni of Italy whom last year gave the go-ahead to th US$8 billion floating LNG project, Coral Sul. The Coral Sul LNG project has a capacity of around 3.4 million tonnes per year and are targeted to start production in 2022. The Coral Sur filed is located offshore Mozambique in block four.  Construction of the hull began on the 6th of September whilst construction of the floating platform began last March in Singapore.

Cahora Bassa em Moçambique opera abaixo da capacidade

Barragem de Cahora Bassa em Moçambique a operar abaixo da capacidade por falta de água

Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa (HCB), empresa que explora a barragem de Cahora Bassa no rio Zambeze, em Tete, Moçambique, obteve um lucro de 7,2 mil milhões de meticais (cerca de 118 milhões de dólares) em 2017, apesar de aquela infra-estrutura não poder operar na sua plena capacidade devido ao baixo nível de água na albufeira escreve a Agência de nOtícias de Moçambique (AIM) 

Falando em Maputona reunião anual sobre o desempenho da HCB, Moisés Machava, director técnico da empresa, explicou que uma ‘seca cíclica’ registada em 2016 reduziu a quantidade de água na albufeira para 41,8 por cento da cota ideal.

Em Dezembro de 2016, a cota na albufeira de Cahora Bassa atingiu o mínimo de 312,22 metros, cifra que corresponde a 41,8 por cento, ou seja oito metros abaixo da curva guia. Este foi o menor nível registado desde a construção da barragem. 

Face às medidas de gestão da albufeira adoptadas pelo Conselho de Administração e dos níveis de precipitação acima da média registado em toda a extensão da bacia do Zambeze, o ano de 2017 foi marcado pela recuperação significativa da cota da albufeira em relação a 2016.

A administração do HCB concluiu que a cota não era suficiente para manter a barragem a operar a plena capacidade e, por isso, decidiu desactivar uma das cinco turbinas gigantes (com uma capacidade individual para gerar 415 megawatts). 

A HCB espera que a recuperação no nível do Zambeze continue ao longo de 2018, e que até o final do ano a cota atinja 320,12 metros. No entanto a empresa revelou que  pretende operar apenas quatro turbinas ao longo do ano.

A HCB gerou 13.778 gigawatts-hora de electricidade em 2017, uma quantidade superior a meta inicial de 12.906 gigawatts-hora, mas menor que a quantidade gerada nos quatro anos anteriores (que atingiu um pico de 16.978 gigawatts-hora em 2015).

A companhia de electricidade sul-africana Eskom é o maior cliente, com quase 71 por cento da energia vendida pela HCB. A empresa pública moçambicana Electricidade de Moçambique (EDM), absorve 24,5 por cento, e a companhia  do Zimbabwé  ZESA 4,7 por cento.

No total, a HCB pagou ao Estado moçambicano cerca de 130 milhões de dólares em 2017, na forma de impostos, taxas e dividendos.

As finanças da HCB foram aliviadas pelo pagamento antecipado da dívida que o governo moçambicano incorreu com um consórcio bancário franco-português quando comprou uma participação maioritária da HCB ao Estado português em 2007. 

O empréstimo de 700 milhões de dólares, que deveria ter sido amortizado com os lucros da HCB até Dezembro de 2017 – foi liquidado totalmente em Junho de 2016, ou seja 18 meses antes do prazo acordado entre as partes. (Macauhub)